Can Apple survive Steve Jobs?

Steve Jobs' latest medical leave of absence has once again triggered speculation on Apple's ability to survive without Jobs' hand firmly on the helm. Media pundits are harking back to the long slow decline of Apple since Jobs was ousted in the mid '80's, and wondering if it is likely to happen again if for whatever reason Jobs is unable to return to work. They seem to believe that Apple's success since Jobs' return in 1997 is solely due to Jobs' influence and business acumen. Are they right? Is Jobs' personality the only thing that is keeping Apple going?

Editorial: The Elusive Verizon iPhone

Once again, or is it still?, the spectre of a new Verizon iPhone has risen from the dead to plague everyone with a fresh stale round of false hopes. New evidence is being pointed to as a clear indicator that Apple will soon announce a new iPhone for Verizon to be released next quarter. Of course, these rumors have cropped up every quarter since before the original iPhone was announced. And every quarter, they've been wrong. I think they're wrong again. Then again, my position does have the advantage that I can only be wrong once. But even though I believe that Apple won't be releasing a Verison iPhone anytime soon, I think they've built one. Probably several. Let me explain why...

In which our author eats crow...

I was wrong.

In a BIG way. A little right, too, but mostly wrong.

In yesterday's editorial, and in the comments, I took the stance that despite the high demand for the new iPhone 4 it was unlikely that the pre-order inventory would be exhausted on the first day.

BOY, was I wrong.

Demand for the new iPhone was so strong that, despite the problems that plagued Apple and AT&T's systems from the high volume of orders, Apple and AT&T ran through their inventory of pre-order phones in less than a day. AT&T ran through their allotment very early in the day. Other resellers such as Best Buy and Radio Shack (now just "The Shack") exhausted their allotment within hours after they started taking pre-orders. And last night on the US Apple Store, the availability for the iPhone 4 quietly ticked over from "Delivered on June 24th" to "Ships on July 2nd".

Orion commented on yesterday's iPhone 4 Preorder Madness editorial that, the the new phones "are also not in infinite supply" as a rationale for the massive drive by customers to put in their pre-orders. While this is correct, we should also remember that the window for acquiring an iPhone 4 is roughly 11 months long, and the penalty for waiting to long to get one is the opportunity to order an iPhone 5. So, I was right in that there really isn't a great need to scramble to get your hands on a new iPhone. They'll be around for a while, and most of us already have perfectly serviceable phones to use in the meantime. I mean, we got this far, didn't we?

But I clearly didn't understand how strongly the desire for the new phone ran. For those, like myself, who didn't get a pre-order in, we now have the choice of standing in line at the Apple Store on June 24th in the hopes of being early enough in line to get one of the units set aside for walk-in customers on the release date, or place your order now for the July 2nd ship date and expect to see your new phone the following week, or just wait until the rush dies down and the phones are plentiful and easy to find.

I have to wonder what feature has made the iPhone 4 so irresistible to so many. Is this just the mass of iPhone and iPhone 3G users whose commitments have expired looking to get their hands on a phone that can take full advantage of iOS 4? Or new users who have been waiting for multi-tasking before buying in? Is it Facetime that has tipped the scales for users new and old who now have to have the ability to place video calls? The new Retina Display? The LED Flash? The ability to take and edit video right on your phone? Or the combination of all of these?

I guess June is going to have a second poll so I can find out.

I hope everyone got their pre-orders in.  And next week, when you get your hands on the new phone, let me know what you think.

iPhone 4 Preorder Madness

It seems that some folks have spent a very sleepless and angry night.

This morning the iPhone 4 went on pre-order at the Apple store. And it would appear that the demand for Apple's new phone has far outstripped their expectations.  Or at least their servers ability to handle the traffic.

Early bird iPhone fans, who couldn't bear to wait any longer to pre-order their new phones, have reported great anguish and frustration as the Apple store has repeatedly failed to load, or has aborted their transactions in the middle of processing. Timeouts and long wait times have characterized this experience for most who attempted to put in their pre-orders in the first few hours of the new phone's availability. One iPhone hopeful who was tweeting her frustration after trying repeatedly to place her order for hours reported that she had actually got to the "Place Order" button, and then lost her session when she clicked it.

Why does this sort of thing happen time and again when Apple rolls out a new product? Is Apple underestimating the demand? Are they underestimating the server resources required to process the influx of orders?

Perhaps the problem doesn't lie with Apple. In processing the pre-orders, at least in the United States, the Apple Store has to gain approval from their phone partner(s) before completing the transaction. It may be that Apple's servers have been able to handle the load, but they have been slowed down by overwhelmed servers on the end of AT&T and other partners. Each of these pending transactions takes up additional system resources and leads quickly to Apple's servers being overwhelmed.

Or perhaps we should lay the blame with the consumer? With that odd desire to be the first to acquire a new gadget or device. Pre-orders on the 15th will arrive at the same time as pre-orders on the 16th, 17th, or even the 21st. These devices aren't being built to order. They've already been shipped to Apple warehouses about the country. But there is still that desire for immediate gratification. Another twitterer showing his frustration with the Apple store this morning, upon my asking him why he didn't wait for a later time, responded, "But I want it NOOOOWWWWW!" Thus technology doth make five-year-olds of us all.

Of course, Apple could have throttled down the server resources for the first few hours in order to inflate the appearance of demand for the new phone. It would be a horribly cynical thing to do, creating bad public relations in order to capitalize off the publicity, but it would also satisfy Apple stockholders that the company was sound and that their products are in high demand. But I don't think Apple would do such a thing. Not because I believe that Apple has high ideals that would prevent them using the same sort of tactics that are regularly used by toy companies to generate Christmas demand. No, I doubt that Apple would employ such tactics because they are so committed to providing a good user experience, I don't think they would willingly sabotage their own site and create a bad user experience, no matter how lucrative it might be.

In the end, we have only ourselves to blame.  After all, you can still pre-order tomorrow.

iPhone 4, Something new, or more of the same?

With great fanfare, and very little surprise, Apple announced this year's version of the iPhone last week. And probably the most surprising thing about it is that we've seen it before. Thanks to Gizmodo and their somewhat questionable approach to journalistic ethics and property laws.

The new iPhone isn't quite what I expected from Apple. I had originally dismissed the photos from Gizmodo because they showed a device that seemed distinctly un-Apple-like in design. The iPhone 3G and 3Gs showed Apple going to a smoother, more flowing design, curved to fit the hand comfortably. It was quite a change to see Apple go to a boxy, minimalist industrial look instead. In retrospect, we probably should have expected something like this, given Apple's past with the sleek, sculpted Wallstreet and Pismo Powerbooks being replaced by the boxy Titanium Powerbooks and the only slightly more rounded Aluminum MacBook Pros. When changing medium, Apple does tend to go back to basics with their design and then evolve.

Jobs compares the new iPhone design to being similar to an old Leica camera, which seems somewhat odd for the CEO of a modern tech company.  Actually, if they'd finished out the iPhone 4 in brass instead of stainless steel, you could make a case of calling it a more steampunk inspired design. Just brass and glass. Of course, if you go for Apple's "bumper" accessory "case" (how can it be a case if it only covers the sides?) that will help round off the edges. But the flat, squared-off design of the iPhone 4 seems very reminiscent of the first generation iPod nano. I thought Apple had moved past that phase.

Apple continues its odd obsession with making thin devices. While I can see the advantage in making lighter, more portable devices, we are at a stage where there is little to be gained by thinness. While technology has managed to create functioning displays as thin and flexible as an old slide transparency, such products are still a ways from the market. Of course, if someone manages to make a smartphone with a flat plastic display, a battery on one end and a take up reel on the other, I'm pretty sure it will sell. And right now, I wouldn't be surprised if Apple made it.  But that is next year (at least)... Still, this seems more like an attempt at thinness for the sake of thinness. I don't see any real utility being added by squeezing more space out of the phone. In fact, I'd say that a lot of people would have been very happy if Apple had kept the previous volume of the iPhone and just filled the space vacated with more battery. The battery is the biggest component in the new phone, and more battery time is hard to perceive as a bad thing.

Perhaps this is an extension of the uni-body trend from the Macbook. The iPhone isn't a uni-body, but the two stainless steel antennas that form the sides of the phone are the major structural components of the phone. Does this make it a duo-body design? There is a lot of logic behind minimizing the number of structural joins in a product. This simplifies the assembly process, reduces costs, and makes repairs easier. When done correctly, the end result is a product that is more solid and reliable.

Another of Jobs' featured changes is the new Retina display on the iPhone. How soon will this come to the iPad, I have to wonder. It really ups the ante for the artwork in apps. One has to wonder how IOS 4 apps for the iPhone will look on the iPads currently in the market. This kind of high-density display is great for a small device like a phone, but I expect that soon people will want to see Retina displays on all kinds of devices. I am sure that if this year's new iPod Touch (expected in September) doesn't have a Retina display, many consumers will be screaming bloody murder (OK, more like unfair business practices, but still.). And I wouldn't be surprised seeing these kinds of displays on other iPods. They are ideal for small screens.

But I would not be surprised if pundits start talking about a Retina Display iPad before Christmas rolls around. Or an iMac with a Retina Display. Or 25 to 30 inch Retina Displays for your computer. While these things may come in the next five to ten years, I don't see them coming in the next 1 - 2 years.  Screens of this density increase exponentially in cost as they get bigger. And if you think your video card is working hard to keep up now, just imagine increasing the number of pixels in the same area by a factor of four!

More good news: 802.11n WiFi is finally coming to the iPhone. For owners of the iPhone 4 this will mean an opportunity to get all of your Apple devices off of b and g networks and into a unified n network structure for faster network throughput. The iPhone has been the last of the currently shipping Apple products that was still tied to the slower b/g WiFi frequencies. Of course, if you're still nursing along older devices, you'll still need dual network support, at least until you can afford to upgrade those other devices.

Judging by the demo, the new Gyro sensors will bring a whole new level of sensitivity to iPhone controls.  In the keynote, you can literally see the normal shaking of Job's hand reflected in the iPhone display during the Gyro portion of the demo. This should be great for games and other programs that require accurate sensing of the position of the phone. I suspect that once the developers get properly up to speed on the new hardware we will see a rash of revisions to games, and a bunch of new augmented reality type apps.

I am unsure of what to make of iMovie for iPhone. It seems an odd choice of Apple to move into facilitating mobile video on the phone. Video editing seems to be a space where space is important. the iPhone's small screen should be a liability to video processing. This may be somewhat mitigated by the limited functions supported by iMovie for iPhone. We won't be able to truly evaluate it until both products are released and into consumer hands. I hope Apple has come up with a really fantastic interface and has packed a ton of functionality into the app, but this one just looks like a stumble to me. It might be good for simple clip trimming, but I don't know that it will be worth the price of the app.

Jobs also announced that Apple will be renaming iPhone OS 4 to iOS 4. This seems somewhat logical seeing as it powers iPhones, iPod touches, and iPads. I expect that we will be seeing some arguments over how to pronounce the new name. Let us hope that there are no holy wars between those who say "eye oh ess" and those who say "eeeos".

Finally unified mailbox and threading are making it to mail on the iPhone. About time. First we get used to these features on Mail on our Macs, then we have to unlearn them when working with Mail on our iPhones. Haven't we all moved to using our phones as our primary e-mail reading and managing tool? Once you start looking at your e-mail on your phone, it quickly becomes the dominant e-mail reading platform, simply so you can avoid having to read the same e-mail multiple times. Or we all move off of POP and onto IMAP for all of our mail servers. Threading makes it much easier to manage e-mail conversations, especially if the conversation is spread out over a long period of time. And for any of us with multiple e-mail accounts to manage, a unified mailbox is a godsend.

Facetime. This is a feature that people have been practically clamoring for ever since the iPhone first came out. But I wonder if even Apple realizes that this may just make the iPhone 4 the first cell phone for the deaf? I'm not sure if it really is the first cell phone that can be used by the deaf, but it does look like it is the first that you can sign on. Providing you can sign one-handed. Apple did include someone signing in the film on Facetime, but otherwise didn't make much about it.  I would have expected them to make a big thing about how it is more accessible for the deaf. Then again, they may have decided that it wasn't as much of a selling point.

For me the second biggest surprise of the event was the announcement that AT&T is going to make customers eligible to upgrade to the new iPhone 4 at the subsidized price 6 months early. Looks like AT&T really wants a big roll out this year. This seems odd as AT&T doesn't really make money on people upgrading expensive subsidized phones. Yes, they make money on the 2 year contracts, but unless the customer was otherwise planning on leaving AT&T, they would be making that money anyway. Now upgrades will make lots of money for Apple, so this may be part of AT&T supporting the contract.

Today marks the beginning of iPhone 4 pre-orders, and I have no doubt that Apple's servers will be very busy. But I'm somewhat surprised that Apple isn't taking the same kind of criticism for the iPhone 4 that they took for the iPad. Even with iOS 4 coming out on June 21st changing the look of things, the iPhone 4 isn't that different from its predecessors. It seems more evolutionary than revolutionary.  Yes, there are a lot of updates, but do they amount to a significant improvement? Well, we'll all be able to judge for ourselves come June 24th. Unless the demand is so high we have a hard time getting our hands on one.

Apple still has not managed to do a the worldwide rollout, but they do seem to be trying to get the iPhone out much faster than the iPad. The initial June roll out will supply iPhones to five countries, with successive roll outs over the next two months. If Apple can manage to pull of this ambitious schedule, and not continue to push releases back, it will be a remarkable comeback from the staggering iPad rollout. The iPhone is a more mature product, and Apple does have a better idea of how it will be received by the market, but that really doesn't come close to the series of delays that plagued the iPad rollout.

What little we've seen of Apple's new iPhone accessories makes them seem rather dubious. The "bumper" case seems overpriced, but it does appear to fit with Apple's "naked" iPhone and iPod model. It remains to be seen of Apple has designed this phone to still fit on their own docks while wearing the "bumper" case, or if the phone must be pulled out of the case in order to dock it. And it may be that the one truly revolutionary thing about the new iPhone may be the hardened glass that covers the front and back of the phone. If they have finally come up with a material that doesn't need a case in order to stand up to daily wear and tear without being covered with cracks and scratches, then that will be something exceptional in the industry.

Until the 24th, we'll just have to wait.  And speculate.